- Justin Harding, Parsons Brinckerhoff
DOWNLOAD CONFERENCE PAPER - 18-justin-harding
In light of the historic challenge Australia faces in meeting both its energy needs and carbon emissions targets over the coming decades, a new approach to the forecasting of energy demand and supply has been developed. The approach is subsequently applied to map out a sustainable future for Australia’s energy sector out to the year 2050.
Australia’s carbon emissions are on track to double between 2000 and 2050, however the Government has committed to a reduction of 60%. This has significant economic and engineering implications for Australia’s energy sector that currently accounts for the majority of Australia’s emissions. Aggravating the energy challenge is the growing spectre of constraints in fossil fuel supply.
Traditionally, energy forecasting employed a fundamental assumption of unconstrained energy supply to satisfy an ever-increasing demand. However, this paradigm no longer fits the new energy economy which gives rise to the need for a new approach that starts with an assessment of the supply side. The approach considers seven key factors in turn:
1. Supply resource constraints
2. Supply-side policy and trends
3. Supply-side costs including carbon
4. Supply-side technology development
5. Natural demand patterns
6. Demand-side policy
7. Demand-side technology development
It is demonstrated that the introduction of a carbon price and a focussed policy approach can unlock a considerable portion of the available low-cost energy efficiency measures. The economic balance of energy supply will gradually swing away from oil, brown coal, and black coal, towards gas and renewables. Electricity will become a mainstay of transportation energy. Significant engineering effort and innovation will be required to realise these radical changes on the journey towards Australia’s sustainable energy future.
This paper is based on an essay that won the 2008 Babcock & Brown Wind Partners prize in the National Energy Essay Competition run by the Warren Centre for Advanced Engineering, University of Sydney.
BIO:
Justin Harding is a Consultant in Parsons Brinckerhoff’s Strategic Consulting group and has seven years experience in the electricity industry. Justin specialises in the area of regulated electricity networks and has a background in wind power and renewable energy.
Justin has undertaken numerous feasibility studies and due diligence reviews for wind energy projects across Australia and internationally. He was the owner’s project manager for the first commercial wind farm in Fiji and a lead consultant to the Kazakhstan Wind Power Development Initiative of the United Nations Development Program. Justin has recently undertaken regulatory capital expenditure reviews for electricity networks, assessed the impact of climate change on energy network businesses and has had involvement with the Victorian Renewable Energy Target scheme.
Justin is also on the local committees of the Alternative Technology Association and the Australian Electric Vehicle Association. Justin won the 2008 Babcock & Brown Wind Partners prize for his entry into the National Energy Essay Competition run by the Warren Centre for Advanced Engineering, University of Sydney. He has degrees in Aerospace Engineering and Business Administration.