- Prof Laurie Sparke, Sparke Engineering
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In order to secure a sustainable future, Australia needs to reduce its contribution to global warming, and move to a sustainable national energy strategy. This will require that we reduce greenhouse emissions from private and commercial transport, and at the same time that we reduce our current heavy dependence upon imported oil. We need to utilise energy sources that have reduced environmental impact and that are reliably and economically available.
Global oil production has peaked. Oil production from the world’s biggest producers is in permanent decline. However, as a result of the global economic crisis, demand for oil has dropped. Oil prices have fallen from a peak of $150/bbl in July 2008 to an expected average of $50/bbl through 2009, perhaps falling as low as $30/bbl in the next few months. Reduced profitability has seen oil companies cancel or delay $500 million worth of development projects over the last 6 months. Lack of investment into increasing oil production capacity will result in a supply crunch as soon as the global economy begins to recover. Reducing oil production, reducing investment, increased cost of accessing new oil sources, and the growing threat of global political constraints mean that an oil supply crunch is inevitable. Unfortunately, Australia will experience this crisis sooner than most other developed countries.
Encouraging the community to replace older vehicles with new, more fuel efficient vehicles would reduce transport greenhouse gas emissions. However, there is imbedded energy and hence emissions in the manufacture of new vehicles, potentially as high as 30% of their total lifecycle energy consumption. Hence it may take a decade to break-even, and in the short term the manufacturing emissions would exacerbate an immediate, critical situation. This is, of course, apart from the equity implications of scrapping the cars owned bythose least able to afford new ones. Refitting the passenger car fleet to use LPG could achieve a 30% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, if best technology is utilised. Commercial vehicles contribute 38% of greenhouse gas emissions. The use of LPG by urban delivery vehicles, and CNG to fuel interstate transport would provide similar benefits.
Gas represents an important opportunity for Australia. Although we have no heavy oil reserves, no refinery capability to produce diesel, and inadequate supplies of oil suitable for petrol production, we do have large reserves of gas. Gas is not an end solution for Australia, but represents an immediate and valuable opportunity to reduce transport emissions until more effective solutions such as electric cars and improved public transport are developed over the next decades.