- James Luffman - The Weather Company
Bayesian model averaging techniques are utilised by the OpticastTM system in constructing accountable probability forecasts with numerous applications. Forecast errors are analysed and compared with component models and with alternative multi-model systems. Empirical schemes are assessed for use in reducing near-term forecast errors. Predictability of renewable power generation at varying lead-times as a basis for intermittency management is examined using specific examples, with discussion of likely impacts of future changes in renewable energy legislation. Potential applications in dispersion modelling and process control are discussed.
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